Hong Kong (AFP) – Equities slipped Wednesday as worries about the world’s top two economies offset US rate cut optimism, while the yen hit a nine-month high after a Bank of Japan official hinted at more monetary tightening. The Japanese unit was also boosted by bets on a Kamala Harris presidency after she was considered to have come out on top in her US presidential debate with Donald Trump, and superstar Taylor Swift endorsed her.
The chances of Trump losing also weighed on bitcoin after he had previously vowed to be a “pro-bitcoin president” if elected in November. Nervous traders were jockeying for position ahead of key US inflation data that could play a role in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on interest rates next week. Another round of sub-par US jobs data last week revived worries that the world’s top economy was slowing more than expected and could be on course for a recession. They came a month after a stock rout caused by an equally bad reading on the labor market and added to debate about whether the Fed had waited too long to cut rates owing to its focus on bringing inflation down.
Investor uncertainty over the United States is compounded by the struggles of China’s economy, as leaders there try to kickstart growth in the face of a crisis in the huge property sector, tepid consumer activity, and soaring youth unemployment. The long-running troubles in the economy, and recent crackdowns on various sectors by the government, have hammered the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets, which have underperformed in recent years. They fell again on Wednesday, along with most other markets in the region. Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Bangkok, Jakarta, Wellington, and Manila were also in the red, though Singapore and Mumbai edged up slightly. London rose even as data showed the UK economy stalled in July, while Paris and Frankfurt were also both up.
The US consumer price index later in the day will be pored over for an insight into the Fed’s plans at its next meeting on September 18 and what it could mean for the economy. “The die has been cast for a rate cut by the Fed next week,” Mark Zandi at Moody’s Analytics told AFP. “The CPI would have to be well above the current consensus…to dissuade the Fed not to ease, and even then the higher CPI would have to be due to an unlikely broad-based re-acceleration in price increases.”
While a 50 basis points cut is possible, it is less than likely, regardless of the CPI print, as the Fed would cut that much only if something in the economy or financial system was going off the rails. That isn’t happening. On currency markets, the yen strengthened to 140.71 per dollar at one point — its best level since the turn of the year — after BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa said officials were determined to keep tightening policy. The bank’s surprise decision in July to hike for the second time in 17 years was a factor in the global markets sell-off days later as the yen surged and investors unwound their so-called carry trades in which they used the cheap currency to buy high-yielding assets such as stocks.
The strong debate performance by Harris also weighed on the dollar. Some observers have said Trump’s policies — including tax cuts and more China tariffs — could push up inflation, which could cause the Fed to pause or slow down its rate cuts. Bitcoin slipped more than one percent. Trump said in July that if he regained the White House, he would not allow the US government to sell its holdings of the cryptocurrency. Oil prices bounced more than one percent after being hammered around four percent Tuesday, when Brent fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021 on concerns about the global outlook and after the OPEC oil cartel revised down its demand estimates. Commentators said that offset expectations for a US rate cut and OPEC’s decision to hold out output increases.
– Key figures around 0710 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.5 percent at 35,619.77 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 17,079.67
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.8 percent at 2,721.80 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,223.70
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 141.36 yen from 142.44 yen on Tuesday
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1045 from $1.1023
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3087 from $1.3083
Euro/pound: UP at 84.39 pence from 84.25 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.3 percent at $66.62 per barrel (close)
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.3 percent at $70.10 per barrel (close)
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 40,736.96 points (close)
© 2024 AFP
