Beijing (AFP) – China missed a key climate target in 2024, and emissions in the world’s second-largest economy rose slightly as coal remained dominant despite record renewable additions, official data showed Friday. The figures mean the world’s biggest emitter is off-track on a key commitment under the Paris climate agreement, analysts said.
Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that carbon intensity, which measures emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide per unit of GDP, fell 3.4 percent in 2024—short of an official target of 3.9 percent. This puts the country well behind its goal for an 18-percent reduction from 2020 to 2025. The data indicated that carbon emissions rose slightly from last year, although this was far short of previous jumps, leading experts to speculate about whether China may have reached peak emissions ahead of its 2030 target.
Still, the data suggest it will be “extremely hard” for China to meet its pledge to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent of 2005 levels by 2030, said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in the period 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target,” Myllyvirta added. “This is a key test of China’s commitment to its pledges under the agreement.”
Despite being the largest emitter of the greenhouse gases that drive climate change, China is also a renewable energy powerhouse. It plans to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2060, with some analysts speculating that slowing growth and rapid renewable installations may mean emissions have already leveled off. Determining an emissions peak is likely to require several more years of data and will only be possible retrospectively.
“Regardless of whether it’s a peak or a plateau, I don’t see the structural conditions in place for meaningful emissions decline between now and the official peak target in 2030,” analyst David Fishman told AFP. He noted that before large amounts of planned nuclear and hydro power come online around 2030, coal will continue to grow, albeit slowly.
For now, growth in China’s carbon-hungry industrial sector is holding back progress towards its climate goals, said Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at the think tank Ember. “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure,” he explained. Yang emphasized that reforms, such as increasing flexibility in the energy market and adding clean energy infrastructure, are needed to ensure industrial output growth does not come at the expense of a sustainable energy future.
Total energy consumption was up 4.3 percent compared to 2023, according to the NBS report. Coal, a major source of carbon emissions, provided over half the country’s energy, though renewables also saw a sharp jump last year. “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources,” analyst Yang noted. Once that threshold is crossed and new demand is covered by solar and other renewables, “coal power will start declining in absolute terms.”
Beijing is due to announce details of its 15th Five-Year Plan—for 2026 to 2030—later this year, likely including updated emissions and energy goals. In February, it was also set to submit new emissions targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the Paris Agreement. This submission is meant to update its goals and outline plans through 2035. Like many countries, it missed that deadline, though UN officials expect most NDCs to be submitted this year.
© 2024 AFP
