Beijing (AFP) – China missed a key climate target in 2024, and emissions in the world’s second-largest economy rose slightly as coal remained dominant despite record renewable additions, official data showed Friday. The figures mean the world’s biggest emitter is off-track on a key commitment under the Paris climate agreement, analysts said.
Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that carbon intensity, which measures emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide per unit of GDP, fell 3.4 percent in 2024, falling short of an official target of 3.9 percent. This also puts the country well behind its goal for an 18 percent reduction from 2020 to 2025. The data showed carbon emissions rose slightly from last year, though far short of previous increases, as experts speculate about whether China may have reached peak emissions ahead of a 2030 target.
Still, analysts suggest that it will be “extremely hard” for China to meet its pledge to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent of 2005 levels by 2030. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, noted that “even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in the period 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.” He emphasized that this is a key test of China’s commitment to its pledges under the agreement.
Despite being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases that drive climate change, China is also a renewable energy powerhouse. The country plans to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2060. Some analysts have speculated that slowing growth and rapid renewable installations mean emissions have already leveled off. However, determining an emissions peak is likely to require several more years of data and will only be possible retrospectively.
“Regardless of whether it’s a peak or a plateau, I don’t see the structural conditions in place for meaningful emissions decline between now and the official peak target in 2030,” analyst David Fishman told AFP. He added that before large amounts of planned nuclear and hydro power come online around 2030, coal will continue to grow, albeit slowly.
For now, growth in China’s carbon-hungry industrial sector is holding back progress towards its climate goals, said Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at think tank Ember. “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure,” he explained. Reforms such as increasing flexibility in the energy market and adding clean energy infrastructure are needed to ensure that industrial output growth “doesn’t come at the expense of a sustainable energy future”.
According to the NBS report, total energy consumption was up 4.3 percent over that of 2023. Coal, a major source of carbon emissions, provided over half of the country’s energy, although renewable sources also saw a sharp jump last year. “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources,” analyst Yang remarked. Once that threshold is crossed and new demand is covered by solar and other renewables, “coal power will start declining in absolute terms.”
Beijing is due to announce details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, likely including updated emissions and energy goals. In February, it was also supposed to submit new emissions targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This submission is meant to update its goals and detail plans through 2035. Like many countries, it missed that deadline, though UN officials have said they expect most NDCs to be submitted this year.
© 2024 AFP
