Paris (AFP) – European and Asian stock markets rose on Monday on renewed optimism that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Stock exchanges in Hong Kong and Shanghai closed up, while Paris and Frankfurt pushed higher at around midday in holiday-thinned trading. London and Tokyo were shut.
Investors welcomed data on Friday that showed US job growth had slowed in April, raising hopes that the Fed will lower rates in September. “The Fed won’t be in a position to cut its interest rates right away, but is given a higher chance to do so a bit earlier than what was expected at the start of last week,” said Swissquote bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. She put the odds of a September cut at 67 percent. But she cautioned that the timing “would be a politically uncomfortable time for the Fed” as it would come ahead of the November presidential election. “No-one at the Fed wants to be pointed at for manipulating the (election) results,” she explained.
Investors have also lifted their outlook on how many rate cuts there would be, although the two priced in are still well short of the six envisaged at the start of the year. The Fed had previously been expected to start cutting rates in June as inflation slowed but an uptick in consumer price growth and strong US economic data changed expectations. The central bank kept rates at a 23-year high last week, citing a “lack of further progress” towards inflation slowing to its two-percent target. Fed boss Jerome Powell reassured investors, however, that while the central bank was prepared to hold rates steady as long as necessary, its next move was unlikely to be a hike.
Hopes for a September cut rose after the non-farm payroll report on Friday showed the US economy added 175,000 jobs in April, down from 315,000 in March, while wage growth was also slower than forecast. “The softer wage growth and a slight increase in unemployment may ease some of the Federal Reserve’s concerns about implementing rate cuts this summer,” said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management. “The unexpected weakness across the key labour series is a much-needed friendly surprise for policymakers.” The figures sent Wall Street higher on Friday while London finished the week with another record.
Shanghai was the standout performer on Monday as mainland China investors returned from a long break to play catch-up with a global rally over the past few days. Traders also cheered a report last week that leaders would look at ways to support China’s battered property sector, as well as use measures to provide fresh support to the economy. The tools outlined encompassed interest rates and the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve, Bloomberg News reported.
– Key figures around 1035 GMT – Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.7 percent at 8,015.90 points Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.9 percent at 18,159.14 London – FTSE 100: Closed for a holiday Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.6 percent at 18,578.30 (close) Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.2 percent at 3,140.72 (close) Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday New York – Dow: UP 1.2 percent at 38,675.68 (close Friday)
Dollar/yen: UP at 153.76 yen from 152.99 yen on Friday Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0769 from $1.0767 Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2578 from $1.2546 Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.63 from 85.78 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.0 percent at $78.88 per barrel Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.8 percent at $83.63 per barrel
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© 2024 AFP
